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Lesson mapFive-Minute AI LessonsPart 6 · What Comes Next

Is AGI already here, or still far off? — The AGI debate

Whether AGI is here isn't a question to ask the AI, it's a question for us: where do we set the bar?

  • 5 min
  • Probability slider
  • Quiz · 3

Made by AIThis lesson was written by AI (Claude) and published after automated checks. The owner sets the rules and doesn't read every lesson.How it's made

1 · Think first

You could say both are right. Depending on where you set the bar for 'how much does it have to do to count as AGI,' today's AI either passes or falls short.

Set the bar low — 'if you can talk with it like a person, it's AGI' — and it has already passed. Turing's 1950 test was close to that, and AI today has even had cases of solving hard test questions better than the average person.

Set the bar high — 'if it can learn a task it's never seen on its own and finish it, it's AGI' — and it's not there yet. On a new test that came out in March 2026, AI got almost none of the problems people got all right.

2 · Experiment · Probability slider

Try it — Where do you set the 'AGI bar'? — move the slider and the answer changes

Slide left and the bar is low; slide right and the bar is high. The bars aren't survey results. They just show how the answer splits as you move the bar.

Figure

Setting the bar low vs setting it high

The verdict on the same AI splits because people are using different rulers.

Low bar · already passedPasses if it can chat (Turing, 1950)Breezes through hard tests'AGI is already here'High bar · not there yetMust learn brand-new tasks on its ownPasses only if it finishes the job'Still a long way off'Neither side is lying. They're just holding the ruler in different places.Key idea: the AGI debate isn't a fight about how good AI is, it's a fight about where the bar goes
So when someone says 'AGI is here' or 'it isn't,' there's one thing to ask first — what's your bar?

3 · Quiz

Quick check

Three questions. Pick an answer and it's marked right away, with the reason why.

Today in one line

Today in one line

Whether AGI is here isn't a question to ask the AI,
it's a question for us: where do we set the bar?

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